 To read this article and others similar please visit the CIBSE Journal Website.
Down by not out
Politicians let us down at the Copenhagen climate change summit, but other pressures will provide momentum for major carbon cuts, argues Richard John So what came out of the Copenhagen back in December? Well, a non-binding Copenhagen Accord, ‘recognised’ rather than agreed by the 192 nation states. This is more than the pessimists had suggested (a complete breakdown of talks), and much less than what is needed to keep the Earth with a climate that is no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels. Perhaps, on balance, it was what we should all have expected – for some time, there has been a gap between the science of climate change and the politics of what is actually feasible to achieve. Politically, how easy was it ever going to be to forge a consensus among 192 nations around which exist the thorny issues of who will finance the move to low carbon, and who will police its effective implementation? The Copenhagen Accord is not legally binding, neither is there a deadline for transforming it into a formal treaty. The language in the text also shows that 2C is not a formal target, just that the group ‘recognises the scientific view’ that the temperature increase should be held below this figure. The deal promises to deliver $30bn of aid for developing nations over the next three years, and outlines a goal of providing $100bn a year by 2020 to help poor countries cope with the impacts of climate change. However, it is unclear where the $100bn will come from, or how it will be administered. So where does this leave us? Well, globally, still in the absence of a global treaty – or even a roadmap of how we get there – and the climate scientists will argue we are on course to exceed the 2 deg C figure unless we decide to do the least-best option in tackling climate change and attempt to engineer our global climate – so called geo-engineering. In terms of the UK, and the short to medium term, so long as the various EU/UK commitments to reducing carbon emissions are retained – and there is good reason to believe that they will be – we still face a huge challenge in moving towards a low carbon economy. Nuclear stations, renewable, energy efficiency, and the switch from fossil fuels are still likely to be the outcome. This is because both the UK government and the opposition see the need for these things – not just to reduce carbon, but also to secure our energy supplies and, longer term, to keep down energy prices in the face of what many suggest will be a world where oil and gas prices at least will increase substantially, and become more volatile. What remains, despite the recession, is the challenge and skills gap associated with:
• Meeting the government’s target of having 20 per cent of all energy provided by renewable by 2020;
• The move to ‘zero carbon buildings (albeit that we await the final definition of the term); and
• The electrification of transport A formal agreement at Copenhagen would have triggered the need for even stronger EU and UK targets, and these in turn may have necessitated a huge stimulus plan for the construction industry to deliver the targets. Even as the targets stand it is likely that, whatever the make-up of the administration in the UK after the upcoming general election, the measures required to decarbonise our energy supply and improved energy efficiency measures will require huge investment in any case. So the politics around climate change have been too intractable at Copenhagen. Perhaps the politics of energy security and price will help move us in the right direction until the world can come to its senses and set legally binding, and enforceable, greenhouse gas emission targets. Richard John is director, sustainability, AECOM. He will be one of the speakers on day two of the CIBSE national conference in London, which takes place on April 27-28. For information visit: www.cibse.org/nationalconference. Read this opinion column, and others in the February edition of the CIBSE Journal online at: http://www.cibsejournal.com/issues/2010-02/down-but-not-out
To read this article and others similar please visit the CIBSE Journal Website. |
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